Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol: predictions, H2H and market odds

Rayo Vallecano have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.62 expected goals for, 1.61 against). Espanyol have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.29 expected goals for, 1.59 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 60% of Espanyol's; 50% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Rayo Vallecano won 4, Espanyol won 4 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 23 Apr 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.30–0.97 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.