Port Vale vs Exeter City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Port Vale have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (0.99 expected goals for, 1.03 against). Exeter City have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.35 expected goals for, 2.02 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Port Vale's recent matches and 60% of Exeter City's; 30% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Port Vale won 4, Exeter City won 3 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Port Vale 1–3 Exeter City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%. Kepler's model projects 0.64–0.72 in expected goals, with 0–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.