Palmeiras vs São Paulo: predictions, H2H and market odds

Palmeiras have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.31 expected goals for, 1.11 against). São Paulo have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.19 expected goals for, 1.12 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 70% of São Paulo's; 60% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 9 meetings Palmeiras won 7, São Paulo won 0 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished São Paulo 0–1 Palmeiras.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%. Kepler's model projects 1.79–0.69 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.