Palmeiras vs Corinthians: predictions, H2H and market odds

Palmeiras have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.57 expected goals for, 1.13 against). Corinthians have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.16 expected goals for, 1.38 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 70% of Corinthians's; 40% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 9 meetings Palmeiras won 5, Corinthians won 1 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Corinthians 0–0 Palmeiras.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 45%. Kepler's model projects 1.82–0.63 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.