Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: predictions, H2H and market odds

Osasuna have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.40 expected goals for, 1.50 against). Rayo Vallecano have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.49 expected goals for, 1.62 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Osasuna's recent matches and 90% of Rayo Vallecano's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Osasuna won 6, Rayo Vallecano won 3 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 1–3 Osasuna.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 48%. Kepler's model projects 1.27–0.99 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.