Novorizontino vs Cuiabá: predictions, H2H and market odds

Novorizontino have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.44 expected goals for, 0.73 against). Cuiabá have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.00 expected goals for, 0.86 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Novorizontino's recent matches and 50% of Cuiabá's; 60% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 3 meetings Novorizontino won 2, Cuiabá won 0 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 16 May 2026, finished Cuiabá 0–0 Novorizontino.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 41%. Kepler's model projects 1.40–0.70 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.