Kepler

FixturesLiga Portugal · Portugal · Round 7

Kick-off: Sat, 19 Sept 2026 · 14:30 UTCStadium: Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira

Nacional

0 – 4Full time

Famalicão

Nacional vs Famalicão head to head

In their last 4 meetings Nacional won 1, Famalicão won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished Famalicão 1–0 Nacional.

1Wins

1Draws

2Wins

21 Mar 2026FamalicãoNacional101-0
1 Nov 2025NacionalFamalicão010-1
1 Mar 2025NacionalFamalicão212-1
29 Sept 2024FamalicãoNacional000-0

Betting involves risk. Past results do not guarantee future ones. 18+.

Nacional vs Famalicão predicted score

Expected goals

0.94–1.12

Most likely score

0–1

Market	Model	Market
Both teams to score · Yes	54%	50%
Over 2.5	47%	43%

Kepler's model for a match without a signal. It publishes a pick only when its numbers and the market's disagree by enough.

Nacional vs Famalicão odds

Side	Best price		Fair probability
Both teams to score
Yes	1.95	bet365	50.0%
No	1.90	Betfair	50.0%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5	2.23	Pinnacle	43.4%
Under 2.5	1.72	Sbo	56.6%

odds updated 14:21 UTC · 7 bookmakers tracked

Fair probability: one bookmaker's two prices with its margin removed - Pinnacle where it prices the market, otherwise an exchange.

What is a fair probability? →

No signal was published for this match

Before kickoff the model's price and the market's did not disagree by enough to publish. Signals for upcoming matches reach subscribers the moment they open.

What does “no signal” mean on a match page? →

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Referee

Gustavo Fernandes Correia

Portugal

Yellow cards: 4.4 per match
Red cards: 0.4 per match
Fouls: 22.4 per match
Penalties: 0.4 per match

Matches this season: 5

Kepler in Liga Portugal

1 settled picks · ROI +83.0% · average CLV +2.15%

Full track record →