Kepler

FixturesLiga Portugal · Portugal · Round 6

Kick-off: Sat, 12 Sept 2026 · 14:30 UTCStadium: Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira

Nacional

1 – 3Full time

Alverca

Nacional vs Alverca head to head

In their last 2 meetings Nacional won 1, Alverca won 1 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Nacional 1–0 Alverca.

1Wins

0Draws

1Wins

18 Apr 2026NacionalAlverca101-0
7 Dec 2025AlvercaNacional101-0

Betting involves risk. Past results do not guarantee future ones. 18+.

Nacional vs Alverca predicted score

Expected goals

1.34–0.98

Most likely score

1–0

Market	Model	Market
Both teams to score · Yes	50%	53%
Over 2.5	44%	47%

Kepler's model for a match without a signal. It publishes a pick only when its numbers and the market's disagree by enough.

Nacional vs Alverca odds

Side	Best price		Fair probability
Both teams to score
Yes	1.80	bet365	52.6%
No	2.00	10Bet	47.4%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5	2.06	Pinnacle	47.2%
Under 2.5	1.84	Pinnacle	52.8%

odds updated 10:21 UTC · 10 bookmakers tracked

Fair probability: one bookmaker's two prices with its margin removed - Pinnacle where it prices the market, otherwise an exchange.

What is a fair probability? →

No signal was published for this match

Before kickoff the model's price and the market's did not disagree by enough to publish. Signals for upcoming matches reach subscribers the moment they open.

What does “no signal” mean on a match page? →

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Referee

Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Portugal

Yellow cards: 2.0 per match
Red cards: 0.0 per match
Fouls: 19.7 per match
Penalties: 0.0 per match

Matches this season: 3

Kepler in Liga Portugal

1 settled picks · ROI +83.0% · average CLV +2.15%

Full track record →