Mirassol vs Vitória: predictions, H2H and market odds

Mirassol have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.24 against). Vitória have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.13 expected goals for, 1.55 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Mirassol's recent matches and 20% of Vitória's; 50% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 5 meetings Mirassol won 1, Vitória won 2 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Vitória 1–0 Mirassol.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.70–0.84 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.