Middlesbrough vs Millwall: predictions, H2H and market odds

Middlesbrough have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.40 expected goals for, 1.16 against). Millwall have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.19 expected goals for, 1.07 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 30% of Millwall's; 60% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Middlesbrough won 4, Millwall won 4 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 3 Apr 2026, finished Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 63%. Kepler's model projects 1.49–0.99 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.