Middlesbrough vs Derby County: predictions, H2H and market odds

Middlesbrough have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.98 expected goals for, 1.02 against). Middlesbrough still have other matches before this one, starting with Bristol City on 21 November, so their figures here will update as those results come in. Derby County have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.20 expected goals for, 2.00 against). Derby County still have other matches before this one, starting with Southampton on 21 November, so their figures here will update as those results come in.

Both teams scored in 60% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 70% of Derby County's; 70% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Middlesbrough won 3, Derby County won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Jan 2026, finished Derby County 1–0 Middlesbrough.