Marítimo vs Porto: predictions, H2H and market odds

Marítimo have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.17 expected goals for, 1.32 against). Porto have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.57 expected goals for, 0.95 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Marítimo's recent matches and 40% of Porto's; 70% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 4 meetings Marítimo won 0, Porto won 3 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Feb 2023, finished Marítimo 0–2 Porto.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 53%. Kepler's model projects 0.61–2.14 in expected goals, with 0–2 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.