Lorient vs Toulouse: predictions, H2H and market odds

Lorient have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.10 against). Toulouse have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.25 expected goals for, 1.64 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Lorient's recent matches and 60% of Toulouse's; 40% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Lorient won 0, Toulouse won 3 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished Toulouse 1–0 Lorient.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 52%. Kepler's model projects 1.37–1.25 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.