Las Palmas vs Burgos: predictions, H2H and market odds

Las Palmas have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.18 expected goals for, 1.27 against). Burgos have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.13 expected goals for, 1.09 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 30% of Burgos's; 40% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 6 meetings Las Palmas won 0, Burgos won 2 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 7 Feb 2026, finished Las Palmas 0–0 Burgos.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 42%. Kepler's model projects 1.12–0.73 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.