Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: predictions, H2H and market odds

Hamburger SV have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.4 conceded (1.28 expected goals for, 1.73 against). VfB Stuttgart have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.79 expected goals for, 1.72 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 80% of VfB Stuttgart's; 80% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 2 meetings Hamburger SV won 1, VfB Stuttgart won 1 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 68%. Kepler's model projects 1.22–1.93 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.