Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama: predictions, H2H and market odds

Grêmio have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.05 expected goals for, 1.28 against). Vasco da Gama have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.28 expected goals for, 1.55 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Grêmio's recent matches and 40% of Vasco da Gama's; 60% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 9 meetings Grêmio won 4, Vasco da Gama won 3 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Vasco da Gama 2–1 Grêmio.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 46%. Kepler's model projects 1.72–1.10 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.