Grêmio vs Internacional: predictions, H2H and market odds

Grêmio have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.17 expected goals for, 1.47 against). Internacional have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.13 expected goals for, 1.20 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Grêmio's recent matches and 60% of Internacional's; 50% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 7 meetings Grêmio won 2, Internacional won 3 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Internacional 0–0 Grêmio.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 41%. Kepler's model projects 1.39–1.04 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57%.