Genoa vs Fiorentina: predictions, H2H and market odds

Genoa have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (0.89 expected goals for, 1.31 against). Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.39 expected goals for, 1.71 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Genoa's recent matches and 40% of Fiorentina's; 30% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Genoa won 0, Fiorentina won 5 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Fiorentina 0–0 Genoa.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 45%. Kepler's model projects 1.13–1.31 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54%.