Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama: predictions, H2H and market odds

Fluminense have won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.47 expected goals for, 1.37 against). Vasco da Gama have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.37 expected goals for, 1.52 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Fluminense's recent matches and 40% of Vasco da Gama's; 40% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 7 meetings Fluminense won 2, Vasco da Gama won 4 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 19 Mar 2026, finished Vasco da Gama 3–2 Fluminense.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 43%. Kepler's model projects 1.91–0.93 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.