Flamengo vs Fluminense: predictions, H2H and market odds

Flamengo have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.73 expected goals for, 1.06 against). Fluminense have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.86 expected goals for, 1.24 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Flamengo's recent matches and 70% of Fluminense's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 9 meetings Flamengo won 4, Fluminense won 3 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Fluminense 1–2 Flamengo.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%. Kepler's model projects 1.91–0.85 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.