Flamengo vs Corinthians: predictions, H2H and market odds

Flamengo have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.61 expected goals for, 1.14 against). Corinthians have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.32 expected goals for, 1.01 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Corinthians's; 60% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 9 meetings Flamengo won 4, Corinthians won 3 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Corinthians 1–1 Flamengo.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 49%. Kepler's model projects 1.97–0.69 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.