Fiorentina vs Napoli: predictions, H2H and market odds

Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.41 expected goals for, 1.67 against). Napoli have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.28 expected goals for, 1.34 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 30% of Napoli's; 50% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Fiorentina won 2, Napoli won 6 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, finished Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 53%. Kepler's model projects 1.02–1.54 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.