FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: predictions, H2H and market odds

FC Bayern München have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, averaging 3.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (2.30 expected goals for, 1.41 against). RB Leipzig have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (2.34 expected goals for, 1.71 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of FC Bayern München's recent matches and 60% of RB Leipzig's; 80% and 90% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings FC Bayern München won 6, RB Leipzig won 1 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, finished RB Leipzig 1–5 FC Bayern München.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 84%. Kepler's model projects 2.88–1.23 in expected goals, with 2–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.