Everton vs Chelsea: predictions, H2H and market odds

Everton have won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.40 expected goals for, 1.23 against). Chelsea have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.38 expected goals for, 1.66 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Everton's recent matches and 90% of Chelsea's; 50% and 90% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Everton won 3, Chelsea won 4 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished Everton 3–0 Chelsea.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 59%. Kepler's model projects 1.25–1.35 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.