Empoli vs Palermo: predictions, H2H and market odds

Empoli have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.24 expected goals for, 1.58 against). Palermo have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.59 expected goals for, 1.47 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Empoli's recent matches and 60% of Palermo's; 30% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 2 meetings Empoli won 0, Palermo won 2 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 7 Feb 2026, finished Palermo 3–2 Empoli.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 52%. Kepler's model projects 1.15–1.34 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55%.