Elche vs Real Madrid: predictions, H2H and market odds

Elche have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.39 expected goals for, 1.59 against). Real Madrid have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (2.20 expected goals for, 1.20 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Elche's recent matches and 40% of Real Madrid's; 50% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Elche won 0, Real Madrid won 4 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 14 Mar 2026, finished Real Madrid 4–1 Elche.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 72%. Kepler's model projects 1.00–2.14 in expected goals, with 0–2 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.