Corinthians vs Fluminense: predictions, H2H and market odds

Corinthians have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.30 expected goals for, 1.09 against). Fluminense have won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.53 expected goals for, 1.19 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Corinthians's recent matches and 80% of Fluminense's; 60% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 9 meetings Corinthians won 4, Fluminense won 4 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 2 Apr 2026, finished Fluminense 3–1 Corinthians.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 39%. Kepler's model projects 1.21–1.01 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.