Ceará vs Criciúma: predictions, H2H and market odds

Ceará have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.11 expected goals for, 1.74 against). Criciúma have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (0.96 expected goals for, 1.41 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Ceará's recent matches and 20% of Criciúma's; 60% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 3 meetings Ceará won 2, Criciúma won 0 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 16 Jun 2026, finished Criciúma 1–1 Ceará.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 40%. Kepler's model projects 1.10–0.98 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54%.