Casa Pia vs Porto: predictions, H2H and market odds

Casa Pia have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (0.96 expected goals for, 1.37 against). Porto have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.5 conceded (1.61 expected goals for, 0.95 against).

Both teams scored in 20% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 30% of Porto's; 20% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 8 meetings Casa Pia won 1, Porto won 6 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 2 Feb 2026, finished Casa Pia 2–1 Porto.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 59%. Kepler's model projects 0.53–1.96 in expected goals, with 0–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.