Burnley vs Middlesbrough: predictions, H2H and market odds

Burnley have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 2.3 conceded (1.19 expected goals for, 1.62 against). Middlesbrough have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.59 expected goals for, 1.11 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Burnley's recent matches and 60% of Middlesbrough's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 4 meetings Burnley won 2, Middlesbrough won 0 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 29 Dec 2024, finished Middlesbrough 0–0 Burnley.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. Kepler's model projects 1.54–0.79 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.