Burnley vs Derby County: predictions, H2H and market odds

Burnley have won 0, drawn 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.17 expected goals for, 1.43 against). Derby County have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.34 expected goals for, 2.28 against).

Both teams scored in 90% of Burnley's recent matches and 60% of Derby County's; 60% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 2 meetings Burnley won 0, Derby County won 0 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 8 Apr 2025, finished Derby County 0–0 Burnley.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%. Kepler's model projects 1.69–0.75 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.