Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough: predictions, H2H and market odds

Birmingham City have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.42 expected goals for, 1.25 against). Middlesbrough have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.29 expected goals for, 1.23 against).

Both teams scored in 90% of Birmingham City's recent matches and 70% of Middlesbrough's; 70% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 8 meetings Birmingham City won 1, Middlesbrough won 7 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 2 Mar 2026, finished Birmingham City 1–3 Middlesbrough.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. Kepler's model projects 1.20–1.32 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.