Benfica vs Vitória Guimarães: predictions, H2H and market odds

Benfica have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (2.10 expected goals for, 1.21 against). Vitória Guimarães have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.10 expected goals for, 1.48 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Benfica's recent matches and 40% of Vitória Guimarães's; 100% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Benfica won 8, Vitória Guimarães won 0 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished Benfica 3–0 Vitória Guimarães.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 67%. Kepler's model projects 2.49–0.68 in expected goals, with 2–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.