Barnsley vs Stevenage: predictions, H2H and market odds

Barnsley have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.19 expected goals for, 1.20 against). Stevenage have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.26 expected goals for, 0.98 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Barnsley's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's; 50% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Barnsley won 2, Stevenage won 4 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Apr 2026, finished Stevenage 1–0 Barnsley.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 49%. Kepler's model projects 1.33–1.02 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.