Avaí vs Vila Nova: predictions, H2H and market odds

Avaí have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.10 expected goals for, 1.18 against). Vila Nova have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.62 expected goals for, 1.50 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Avaí's recent matches and 10% of Vila Nova's; 40% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 9 meetings Avaí won 1, Vila Nova won 4 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Vila Nova 2–0 Avaí.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 37%. Kepler's model projects 1.33–1.02 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.