Atlético Mineiro vs Santos: predictions, H2H and market odds

Atlético Mineiro have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.76 expected goals for, 1.01 against). Santos have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.25 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Atlético Mineiro's recent matches and 70% of Santos's; 60% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 7 meetings Atlético Mineiro won 2, Santos won 2 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Santos 1–0 Atlético Mineiro.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%. Kepler's model projects 1.64–1.03 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.