Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense: predictions, H2H and market odds

Atlético Mineiro have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.29 expected goals for, 0.98 against). Fluminense have won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.48 expected goals for, 1.27 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Atlético Mineiro's recent matches and 70% of Fluminense's; 50% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 9 meetings Atlético Mineiro won 3, Fluminense won 4 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished Fluminense 1–0 Atlético Mineiro.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%. Kepler's model projects 1.27–1.02 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.