Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense: predictions, H2H and market odds

Atlético Mineiro have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.32 expected goals for, 0.98 against). Chapecoense have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.09 expected goals for, 1.30 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Atlético Mineiro's recent matches and 60% of Chapecoense's; 50% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Their only previous meeting in our data, on 2 Apr 2026, finished Chapecoense 0–4 Atlético Mineiro.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 56%. Kepler's model projects 2.26–0.84 in expected goals, with 2–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.