Athletico PR vs Bahia: predictions, H2H and market odds

Athletico PR have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.51 expected goals for, 1.12 against). Bahia have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.41 expected goals for, 1.26 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Athletico PR's recent matches and 60% of Bahia's; 50% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 5 meetings Athletico PR won 1, Bahia won 2 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Apr 2026, finished Bahia 3–0 Athletico PR.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.61–1.09 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.