Atalanta vs Cagliari: predictions, H2H and market odds

Atalanta have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.31 expected goals for, 1.68 against). Cagliari have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.39 expected goals for, 1.28 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Atalanta's recent matches and 30% of Cagliari's; 40% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 8 meetings Atalanta won 4, Cagliari won 3 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 27 Apr 2026, finished Cagliari 3–2 Atalanta.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.89–0.81 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.