Ascoli vs Avellino: predictions, H2H and market odds

Ascoli have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.13 expected goals for, 1.17 against). Avellino have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.39 expected goals for, 1.29 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Ascoli's recent matches and 30% of Avellino's; 30% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. The two have no previous meeting in our data.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 44%. Kepler's model projects 1.13–0.78 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.