Arouca vs Santa Clara: predictions, H2H and market odds

Arouca have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.25 expected goals for, 1.26 against). Santa Clara have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.03 expected goals for, 0.96 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Arouca's recent matches and 40% of Santa Clara's; 60% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Arouca won 3, Santa Clara won 2 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Arouca 2–2 Santa Clara.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 43%. Kepler's model projects 1.26–1.09 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.