Alverca vs Rio Ave: predictions, H2H and market odds

Alverca have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.09 expected goals for, 1.33 against). Rio Ave have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded (1.00 expected goals for, 1.39 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Alverca's recent matches and 30% of Rio Ave's; 50% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 2 meetings Alverca won 1, Rio Ave won 0 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Rio Ave 1–2 Alverca.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.53–1.08 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.