AC Milan vs Lecce: predictions, H2H and market odds

AC Milan have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.41 expected goals for, 1.43 against). Lecce have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.23 expected goals for, 2.10 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of AC Milan's recent matches and 40% of Lecce's; 50% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings AC Milan won 6, Lecce won 0 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 18 Jan 2026, finished AC Milan 1–0 Lecce.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 60%. Kepler's model projects 1.78–0.63 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.